Donald Trump’s tariffs are already wreaking havoc on the supply chain according to this Business Insider article. Several experts believe it could get worse. In the coming weeks, Americans can expect major disruptions to the prices and availability of goods — store shelves may be emptier, prices will rise, and some products will run out sooner than others.
Before Trump took office, let alone announced or implemented his tariffs plan, many major companies brought in extra inventory of products to the US in an attempt to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, multiple supply chain experts told Business Insider. Trump implemented tariffs on countries including Mexico, Canada, and China during his first term and made tariffs a central part of his reelection campaign.
“I would say between one and three months of inventory, they tried to bring in early,” Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and president of LMA Consulting, said.
But that buffer will run out — and soon.
Refer to Lisa Anderson’s Tariff Playbook for a full review and forecast on tariffs as well as recommendations to ensure success in your supply chain.
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The worst is yet to come: Trump’s tariffs could mean even higher prices and empty shelves within weeks.
Donald Trump’s tariffs are already wreaking havoc on the supply chain, and several experts believe it could get worse. Business Insider spoke with nine supply chain researchers, shipping industry insiders, and logistics specialists about the timeline for when consumers might expect to see the most significant effects of Trump’s aggressive trade policy, should he maintain his current strategy.
They agreed that, in the coming weeks, Americans can expect major disruptions to the prices and availability of goods — store shelves may be emptier, prices will rise, and some products will run out sooner than others.
And if things continue on the current trajectory, four of them said, by the end of the year, those effects could be compounded, leading to higher domestic unemployment rates, global market instability, and increased geopolitical tensions.
Shipping rates are already down
Bookings of ocean freight shipments have been down significantly in the weeks since Trump’s sweeping tariffs took effect. Though on April 9, the president paused his higher tariffs on goods from many countries for 90 days, his 10% baseline tariff on all countries remains in effect, as does his 145% tariff on imported Chinese goods.
During the first week of April, following Trump’s initial April 2 tariff announcement, ocean freight container bookings saw a sharp global decline of nearly 50%, according to data from the digital logistics company, Vizion. Specifically, imports into the US fell 64% compared to the previous week, including imports from China to the US, which dropped 36%. Exports out of the US also dropped 30%, according to Vizion data.
In the following weeks, that nosedive continued in what Vizion has called a “tariff shockwave.” For the week of April 14, ocean freight container bookings showed that overall US imports declined 12% week over week, and imports to the US from China declined 22% week over week, Vizion data shows.
“This is a big deal,” Bob Ferrari, a supply chain executive and managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, told Business Insider of the changes in shipping volume. “It has a lot of ramifications because it’s something that the system is not equipped to deal with, and businesses are not equipped to deal with. It has a lot of far-reaching implications.”
Front-loaded inventory is running low
Before Trump took office, let alone announced or implemented his tariffs plan, many major companies brought in extra inventory of products to the US in an attempt to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, multiple supply chain experts told Business Insider. Trump implemented tariffs on countries including Mexico, Canada, and China during his first term and made tariffs a central part of his reelection campaign.
“I would say between one and three months of inventory, they tried to bring in early,” Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and president of LMA Consulting, said.
But that buffer will run out — and soon.
With the tariffs against China currently at 145%, many companies have been forced to cancel their shipments of new stock and are in a holding pattern trying to wait out Trump’s 90-day tariff pause to see what changes come next before placing big orders, Chris Tang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor who’s an expert in global supply chain management and the impact of regulatory policies, told Business Insider.
“Right now, they’re canceling orders, so the inventory will be running low, ” Tang said of businesses. “And once they sell off this inventory, then it’s either higher prices or no products.”
According to data from supply chain research and analysis firm Sea Intelligence, canceled bookings of container shipments from Asia to both coasts of the US over the next few weeks are increasing drastically, in what the company calls a “quite extreme” scenario.
Multiple supply chain analysts told Business Insider that, in a normal business cycle, June through August is when end-of-year imports, like back-to-school supplies, fall products, and holiday merchandise, arrive in US ports. But the decreased volume of shipments and increased cancellations of shipment bookings that the industry is already seeing indicate that the normal cycle could be significantly disrupted, they said.
Originally published in Business Insider, April 26, 2025
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